Lay The Draw - Base Strategy

Lay The Draw is one of the most basic and widespread strategy in trading on sport exchange. This strategy is based on two facts:

  • In above 80% of all soccer matches there will be a goal before the 80th minute of playtime.
  • After a goal was scored the odds for a draw usually increase

In practice this means that first a lay bet on the draw is placed. After a goal is scored a back bet is placed. If everything went right then there’s now a winning regardless how the match actually ends.

Example

For the match Bayern Munich vs. Schalke 04 Alice is offering a Lay-Bet with an odd of 3.5. Bob is buying a share for 10€ from it. At this situation if the match is ending in a draw Alice has to pay 25€ (3.5 * 10€ - 10€) to Bob. If the match ends not in a draw Alice is winning the 10€ from Bob. In the 30th minute of the match Bayern Munich is scoring a goal. The odds for the Draw are rising to 4.5. Now Charly is offering a Lay-Bet with these odds. Now Alice is buying a share of 8€ from Charly (she is placing a back bet). If the match ends draw Alice is wining 28€ from Charly (4.5 * 8€ - 8€). If the match ends not in a draw it means that Alice has lost 8€ to Charly. If you now put together the bets Alice has made with Bob and Charly it results in following:

  • Match ends in a draw: Alice has to pay 25€ to Bob but wins 28€ from Charly. In summary this results in a winning of 3€.
  • Match does not end in a draw: Alice wins 10€ from Bob but loses 8€ to Charly. In summary this results in a winning of 2€.

What could go wrong?

As perfect as the whole strategy sounds there are several scenarios which can go wrong and therefore could result in a loss.

  • No goal is scored. During the whole match no goal is scored and it ends 0 – 0. This means that the odds are dwindling down constantly. The usual practice in such a scenario is to define a stop/loss limit. If that limit is reached a back bet is placed in a way that the loss is the same regardless of the ending. This is called ‘to realize the losses.
  • The underdog is scoring a goal. If this is happing the odds do not increase as strong as if the favorite would have scored. If this is happening there are two potential ways out.
    • Realize the marginal loss or the marginal winning and close the trade.
    • Wait if the underdog is scoring a second goal or if the favorite is equalizing and takes the lead afterwards.
  • A double score is happening. This means a team takes the lead and the other teams equalize almost immediately afterwards before the Lay The Draw Trade could be closed. If this is happening there are also two ways out.
    • Realize the loss and close the trade.
    • Wait until another goal is scored.

  William Hill Poker